
The top three pre-tournament favourites and the reigning champions make up the four semi-finalists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, producing a dream line-up for neutrals.
France meet Spain on Tuesday night in a fascinating clash of styles. Les Bleus' success has been built around an unmatched front line, spearheaded by current Golden Boot leader Kylian Mbappe and supplemented by the likes of Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembele and the tournament's leading assist provider, Michael Olise.
Spain's Euro 2024 triumph was defined by similarly devastating attacking play, with Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams taking many of the headlines. That has not quite been the case this time around. Both have had fitness issues, although Yamal has now played at least 75 minutes in each of Spain's last four matches, and La Roja's success has been based more on discipline and being extremely difficult to break down than particularly eye-catching attacking football.
The last meeting between these two European superpowers was an all-time classic, with Spain beating France 5-4 in the 2025 Nations League semi-finals.
Remarkably, England and Argentina have not met for more than two decades. The Three Lions have therefore never come up against Lionel Messi, and keeping him quiet will be central to their hopes of reaching a first World Cup final away from home.
Thomas Tuchel’s side have been through some serious graft over the past week. They survived a Mexican onslaught at altitude in the Azteca while playing most of the second half with 10 men, then went the full 120 minutes against Norway in the Miami heat on Saturday.
Argentina have hardly had it easy either. Their knockout run has been the most eventful of any remaining side, beginning with an extra-time 3-2 win over surprise package Cape Verde before they came from 2-0 down to beat Egypt. Switzerland then outplayed them for long spells in the quarter-finals, until Breel Embolo’s red card changed the course of the game.
Throughout the World Cup, tipster Ben Smith has been providing our World Cup 2026 betting tips with a BetMGM accumulator for each day or round. The focus is on player props, cards, corners, and other alternative stat-based selections rather than the match odds. Below is a bet builder for each semi-final.
Mbappe has registered 2, 4, 4, 2, 3 and 4 shots on target at this World Cup, clearing the 2.5 line in five of his six appearances when using BetMGM’s Golden Sub offer, which rescued the bet last time out with Jean-Philippe Mateta getting him over the line.
Mbappe is 5/2 to record three or more again, which looks fair even against a Spain side that have defended well throughout the tournament.
There has been plenty of talk about France not facing a major test yet, but the same can be said to an extent about Spain. Portugal were content to keep their last-16 tie level for long periods, so La Roja were never placed under sustained pressure.
Belgium almost found a few openings in the quarter-final but lacked the quality to take advantage. France certainly do not lack in that department.
Spain have also averaged more fouls and collected more cards than France at the tournament, so I’m happy to add them to receive the most bookings.
Argentina are the least convincing of the four teams left in the competition based on what we've seen so far. They struggled against Cape Verde, were extremely fortunate and benefited from some controversial decisions in their comeback against Egypt, but perhaps most concerning was how dominant Switzerland were in the quarter-finals while it was 11 against 11.
England have not fired on all cylinders either, but there is little doubt that they have earned their place in the semi-finals. Norway caused them problems on Saturday, although the Three Lions can be forgiven for showing some signs of fatigue after the physical and logistical demands of their trip to the Azteca.
They hold the edge over Argentina for shots on target per 90, with the reigning champions managing only two in regulation time against the Swiss.
Combine that with over 12.5 Argentina fouls, with England drawing just shy of 15 per 90 in North America.
France's attack is facing its biggest test of the tournament, but Mbappe has given us little reason to desert him. Meanwhile, England may be capable of exposing an Argentina side that has ridden its luck throughout the knockout rounds. The two semi-final bet builders combine for a 26/1 accumulator on BetMGM.
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