Burnley vs Derby County Prediction & Stats | EFL Championship | 19/09
The encounter between Burnley and Derby County is set to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday, 19/09.
This EFL Championship fixture offers an intriguing clash of form and tactics, with both sides eager to make a statement at this stage of the season.
Read our full prediction below and get some of the best betting insights based on statistics.
Our Recommended Bet
Our analysts at Betting.co.uk have examined key metrics and modelled the most likely match outcomes based on both teams' recent performance data.
This includes historical trends, home and away statistics, and efficiency in front of goal.
Have a look at our recommended bet and key insights below.
Recommended Bet
BTTS 1st Half
Why we predict BTTS 1st Half - Yes
Our betting pick is BTTS 1st Half – Yes for the Burnley vs Derby County encounter. Both sides tend to start games aggressively, often pushing for early goals. With offensive setups and high first-half intensity, there’s a strong chance each team finds the net before halftime.
Key Betting Insights
Burnley
Scored 5 goals in their last 5 matches
Conceded in 5 of their last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 5 out of Burnley's last 5 matches
Derby County
5 matches against Burnley ended in a draw
Over 9.5 corners occurred in 5 of Derby County's last 5 matches
Conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches
BTTS 1st Half: 7/2
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Burnley Preview
Burnley has completed 7 fixtures in the EFL Championship, securing 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses — an average of 0.43 points per game. In the EFL Championship, the team has scored 8 goals (1.14 per game) and conceded 16 (2.29 per game).
Across all competitions this season, Burnley has played 51 matches, scoring 56 goals (1.1 per match) and conceding 98 (1.92 per match).
Team Statistics/Latest Results
Burnley
Goals Scored:56
Goals Conceded:98
Average Goals Scored:1.1
Average Goals Conceded:1.92
Wins:6
Goal Difference:-42
Date
Game
Result
19/09
Burnley
1 - 1
Derby County
D
12/09
Swansea City
3 - 1
Burnley
L
08/09
Wrexham
1 - 1
Burnley
D
05/09
Burnley
1 - 2
Bristol City
L
02/09
Burnley
1 - 1
Middlesbrough
D
Burnley to win the match: 8/11
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Derby County Preview
Across 7 EFL Championship matches, Derby County has posted 1 victories, 1 stalemates, and 5 defeats, averaging 0.57 points per fixture. In those games they scored 6 (0.86 per match) and conceded 13 (1.86 per match).
During the whole 2026/27 campaign, Derby County has earned 21 wins from 57 matches across all competitions, scoring 77 goals (1.35 per match) and conceding 80 (1.4 per match).
Team Statistics/Latest Results
Derby County
Goals Scored:77
Goals Conceded:80
Average Goals Scored:1.35
Average Goals Conceded:1.4
Wins:21
Goal Difference:-3
Date
Game
Result
19/09
Burnley
1 - 1
Derby County
D
12/09
Derby County
1 - 2
Birmingham City
L
09/09
Derby County
0 - 1
West Bromwich
L
05/09
West Ham
3 - 0
Derby County
L
01/09
Portsmouth
0 - 2
Derby County
W
Derby County to win the match: 16/5
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Statistical Insights for Burnley vs Derby County
Here's a statistical breakdown comparing each team's key metrics to the average.
From goal output and both teams to score rates to the results of their last 5 matches, these numbers offer a data-backed view to help identify betting value in the Burnley vs Derby County fixture.
Key metrics
Team Form
Burnley
England - EFL Championship
Form
Last 5 Games
PPG
Overall
L
D
L
D
L
0.4
Home
L
D
D
D
D
0.8
Away
L
D
L
D
L
0.4
Derby County
England - EFL Championship
Form
Last 5 Games
PPG
Overall
D
L
L
L
W
0.8
Home
L
L
L
D
L
0.2
Away
L
W
L
W
L
1.2
Favourite
Home Win
4/5
56.18%
Draw
11/4
27.03%
Away Win
3/1
24.39%
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Key Metrics
Here's a breakdown of the core match metrics that often define betting value: goals scored, goals conceded, corners and cards.
Analysing these stats offers a sharper view of team tendencies and helps identify markets with consistent trends.
Key metrics
Goals Scored
Burnley
5
last 5 matches
Derby County
4
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Burnley scored +25% more goals than Derby County in the last 5 matches.
Burnley and Derby County goals scored count, last 5 matches
Swansea City
1
Wrexham
1
Bristol City
1
Middlesbrough
1
Norwich City
1
1
Burnley
1
Birmingham City
0
West Bromwich
0
West Ham
2
Portsmouth
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Key metrics
Goals Conceded
Burnley
11
last 5 matches
Derby County
7
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Burnley conceded +57% more goals than Derby County in the last 5 matches.
Burnley and Derby County goals conceded count, last 5 matches
Swansea City
3
Wrexham
1
Bristol City
2
Middlesbrough
1
Norwich City
4
1
Burnley
2
Birmingham City
1
West Bromwich
3
West Ham
0
Portsmouth
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Key metrics
Corners
Burnley
25
last 5 matches
Derby County
35
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Derby County received +40% more corners than Burnley in the last 5 matches.
Burnley and Derby County corners count, last 5 matches
Swansea City
6
Wrexham
4
Bristol City
5
Middlesbrough
5
Norwich City
5
6
Burnley
10
Birmingham City
11
West Bromwich
6
West Ham
2
Portsmouth
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Key metrics
Cards
Burnley
11
last 5 matches
Derby County
7
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Burnley received +57% more cards than Derby County in the last 5 matches.
Burnley and Derby County cards count, last 5 matches
Swansea City
1
Wrexham
3
Bristol City
3
Middlesbrough
2
Norwich City
2
2
Burnley
1
Birmingham City
0
West Bromwich
2
West Ham
2
Portsmouth
Dave Kuzio
Content Manager
Dave is an established football tipster and NCTJ and NCE qualified journalist. He has over 23 years experience writing for sports websites including Teletext Sport, and providing betting tips for some of the biggest football betting sites. For his sins, he is a Barnsley FC supporter and gets to as many games as possible with his two sons.
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