Derby County vs Birmingham City Prediction & Stats | EFL Championship | 12/09
The encounter between Derby County and Birmingham City is set to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday, 12/09.
This EFL Championship fixture offers an intriguing clash of form and tactics, with both sides eager to make a statement at this stage of the season.
Read our full prediction below and get some of the best betting insights based on statistics.
Our Recommended Bet
Our analysts at Betting.co.uk have examined key metrics and modelled the most likely match outcomes based on both teams' recent performance data.
This includes historical trends, home and away statistics, and efficiency in front of goal.
Have a look at our recommended bet and key insights below.
Recommended Bet
2nd Half Derby County Win
Why we predict Derby County to win the second half
Our suggested pick is Second Half – Derby County Win for the Derby County vs Birmingham City encounter.
We anticipate Derby County to grow into the game and finish strongly. With attacking substitutes and home momentum, they could take control after the break and win the second half.
Key Betting Insights
Derby County
11 matches against Birmingham City ended in a draw
Scored 5 goals in their last 5 matches
Conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches
Birmingham City
11 matches against Derby County ended in a draw
Scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches
Conceded in 5 of their last 5 matches
2nd Half Derby County Win: 12/5
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Derby County Preview
Derby County has completed 5 fixtures in the EFL Championship, securing 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses — an average of 0.8 points per game. In the EFL Championship, the team has scored 5 goals (1 per game) and conceded 10 (2 per game).
Across all competitions this season, Derby County has played 55 matches, scoring 76 goals (1.38 per match) and conceding 77 (1.4 per match).
Team Statistics/Latest Results
Derby County
Goals Scored:76
Goals Conceded:78
Average Goals Scored:1.36
Average Goals Conceded:1.39
Wins:21
Goal Difference:-2
Date
Game
Result
12/09
Derby County
1 - 2
Birmingham City
L
09/09
Derby County
0 - 1
West Bromwich
L
05/09
West Ham
3 - 0
Derby County
L
01/09
Portsmouth
0 - 2
Derby County
W
29/08
Derby County
0 - 3
Swansea City
L
Derby County to win the match: 9/4
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Birmingham City Preview
Across 5 EFL Championship matches, Birmingham City has posted 1 victories, 4 stalemates, and 0 defeats, averaging 1.4 points per fixture. In those games they scored 7 (1.4 per match) and conceded 6 (1.2 per match).
During the whole 2026/27 campaign, Birmingham City has earned 21 wins from 57 matches across all competitions, scoring 72 goals (1.26 per match) and conceding 73 (1.28 per match).
Team Statistics/Latest Results
Birmingham City
Goals Scored:73
Goals Conceded:75
Average Goals Scored:1.26
Average Goals Conceded:1.29
Wins:21
Goal Difference:-2
Date
Game
Result
12/09
Derby County
1 - 2
Birmingham City
W
09/09
Norwich City
2 - 1
Birmingham City
L
06/09
Birmingham City
2 - 2
Wolverhampton
D
01/09
Birmingham City
1 - 1
Southampton
D
28/08
Wrexham
1 - 2
Birmingham City
W
Birmingham City to win the match: 6/5
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Statistical Insights for Derby County vs Birmingham City
Here's a statistical breakdown comparing each team's key metrics to the average.
From goal output and both teams to score rates to the results of their last 5 matches, these numbers offer a data-backed view to help identify betting value in the Derby County vs Birmingham City fixture.
Key metrics
Team Form
Derby County
England - EFL Championship
Form
Last 5 Games
PPG
Overall
L
L
W
L
D
0.8
Home
L
L
D
L
L
0.2
Away
L
W
L
W
L
1.2
Birmingham City
England - EFL Championship
Form
Last 5 Games
PPG
Overall
W
L
D
D
W
1.6
Home
D
D
L
D
W
1.2
Away
L
W
D
W
D
1.6
Home Win
9/4
30.3%
Draw
12/5
29.41%
Favourite
Away Win
11/10
47.85%
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Key Metrics
Here's a breakdown of the core match metrics that often define betting value: goals scored, goals conceded, corners and cards.
Analysing these stats offers a sharper view of team tendencies and helps identify markets with consistent trends.
Key metrics
Goals Scored
Derby County
4
last 5 matches
Birmingham City
8
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Birmingham City scored +100% more goals than Derby County in the last 5 matches.
Derby County and Birmingham City goals scored count, last 5 matches
West Bromwich
0
West Ham
0
Portsmouth
2
Swansea City
0
Cardiff City
2
2
Derby County
1
Norwich City
2
Wolverhampton
1
Southampton
2
Wrexham
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Key metrics
Goals Conceded
Derby County
9
last 5 matches
Birmingham City
7
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Derby County conceded +29% more goals than Birmingham City in the last 5 matches.
Derby County and Birmingham City goals conceded count, last 5 matches
West Bromwich
1
West Ham
3
Portsmouth
0
Swansea City
3
Cardiff City
2
1
Derby County
2
Norwich City
2
Wolverhampton
1
Southampton
1
Wrexham
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Key metrics
Corners
Derby County
31
last 5 matches
Birmingham City
28
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Derby County received +11% more corners than Birmingham City in the last 5 matches.
Derby County and Birmingham City corners count, last 5 matches
West Bromwich
11
West Ham
6
Portsmouth
2
Swansea City
5
Cardiff City
7
4
Derby County
7
Norwich City
8
Wolverhampton
3
Southampton
6
Wrexham
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Key metrics
Cards
Derby County
12
last 5 matches
Birmingham City
12
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Both teams got the same number of cards in the last 5 matches.
Derby County and Birmingham City cards count, last 5 matches
West Bromwich
0
West Ham
2
Portsmouth
2
Swansea City
3
Cardiff City
5
3
Derby County
2
Norwich City
2
Wolverhampton
3
Southampton
2
Wrexham
Dave Kuzio
Content Manager
Dave is an established football tipster and NCTJ and NCE qualified journalist. He has over 23 years experience writing for sports websites including Teletext Sport, and providing betting tips for some of the biggest football betting sites. For his sins, he is a Barnsley FC supporter and gets to as many games as possible with his two sons.
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