Italy vs Belgium Prediction | UEFA Nations League | 25/09
The encounter between Italy and Belgium is set to kick off at 19:45 on Friday, 25/09, at Stadio Olimpico.
This UEFA Nations League fixture offers an intriguing clash of form and tactics, with both sides eager to make a statement at this stage of the season.
Read our full prediction below and get some of the best betting insights based on statistics.
Our Recommended Bet
Our analysts at Betting.co.uk have examined key metrics and modelled the most likely match outcomes based on both teams' recent performance data.
This includes historical trends, home and away statistics, and efficiency in front of goal.
Have a look at our recommended bet and key insights below.
Recommended Bet
1st Half Under 0.5 Goals
Why we predict under 0.5 Goals in the first half
Our tip is First Half – Under 0.5 Goals for the Italy vs Belgium fixture.
We foresee a cautious opening, with both teams feeling each other out and avoiding early risks. A goalless first half is a realistic outcome here.
Key Betting Insights
Italy
Scored 6 goals in their last 5 matches
Scored at least 1 goal in 5 consecutive matches
Undefeated in their last 4 clashes
Belgium
Scored 13 goals in their last 5 matches
Conceded in 4 of their last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 4 out of Belgium's last 5 matches
1st Half Under 0.5 Goals: 11/5
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Italy Preview
Italy is yet to feature in the UEFA Nations League, so this fixture marks their first outing in the competition.
Looking at Italy's performance across all competitions this year, the statistics are as follows:
Matches played: 12
Wins: 9
Draws: 1
Losses: 2
Goals Scored: 26 (Avg. 2.17)
Goals Conceded: 13 (Avg. 1.08)
Team Statistics/Latest Results
Italy
Goals Scored:26
Goals Conceded:13
Average Goals Scored:2.17
Average Goals Conceded:1.08
Wins:9
Goal Difference:13
Date
Game
Result
07/06
Greece
0 - 1
Italy
W
03/06
Luxembourg
0 - 1
Italy
W
31/03
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1 - 1
Italy
D
26/03
Italy
2 - 0
Northern Ireland
W
16/11
Italy
1 - 4
Norway
L
Italy to win the match: 5/4
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Belgium Preview
On the other hand, Belgium is yet to play a match in the UEFA Nations League, making this their first appearance in the competition.
Across all competitions this season, the team boasts the following performance:
Matches played: 18
Wins: 11
Draws: 6
Losses: 1
Goals Scored: 56 (Avg. 3.11)
Goals Conceded: 17 (Avg. 0.94)
Team Statistics/Latest Results
Belgium
Goals Scored:56
Goals Conceded:17
Average Goals Scored:3.11
Average Goals Conceded:0.94
Wins:11
Goal Difference:39
Date
Game
Result
10/07
Spain
2 - 1
Belgium
L
07/07
USA
1 - 4
Belgium
W
01/07
Belgium
3 - 2
Senegal
W
27/06
New Zealand
1 - 5
Belgium
W
21/06
Belgium
0 - 0
Iran
D
Belgium to win the match: 11/5
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Statistical Insights for Italy vs Belgium
With at least one of the two sides yet to record a match in this competition, a like-for-like statistical comparison is not yet available for this fixture.
Recent form across all competitions still offers a useful reference point:
Key metrics
Team Form
Italy
International - UEFA Nations League
Form
Last 5 Games
PPG
Overall
W
W
D
W
L
2
Home
W
L
W
W
W
2.4
Away
W
W
D
W
W
2.6
Belgium
International - UEFA Nations League
Form
Last 5 Games
PPG
Overall
L
W
W
W
D
2
Home
W
D
D
W
W
2.2
Away
L
W
W
D
W
2
Favourite
Home Win
5/4
44.05%
Draw
5/2
28.57%
Away Win
11/5
31.25%
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Key Metrics
Here's a breakdown of the core match metrics that often define betting value: goals scored, goals conceded, corners, and cards.
Analysing these stats offers a sharper view of team tendencies and helps identify markets with consistent trends.
Key metrics
Goals Scored
Italy
6
last 5 matches
Belgium
13
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Belgium scored +117% more goals than Italy in the last 5 matches.
Italy and Belgium goals scored count, last 5 matches
Greece
1
Luxembourg
1
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1
Northern Ireland
2
Norway
1
1
Spain
4
USA
3
Senegal
5
New Zealand
0
Iran
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Key metrics
Goals Conceded
Italy
5
last 5 matches
Belgium
6
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Belgium conceded +20% more goals than Italy in the last 5 matches.
Italy and Belgium goals conceded count, last 5 matches
Greece
0
Luxembourg
0
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1
Northern Ireland
0
Norway
4
2
Spain
1
USA
2
Senegal
1
New Zealand
0
Iran
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Dave Kuzio
Content Manager
Dave is an established football tipster and NCTJ and NCE qualified journalist. He has over 23 years experience writing for sports websites including Teletext Sport, and providing betting tips for some of the biggest football betting sites. For his sins, he is a Barnsley FC supporter and gets to as many games as possible with his two sons.
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