Portugal vs Wales Prediction | UEFA Nations League | 24/09

The encounter between Portugal and Wales is set to kick off at 19:45 on Thursday, 24/09, at Estádio José Alvalade.

This UEFA Nations League fixture offers an intriguing clash of form and tactics, with both sides eager to make a statement at this stage of the season.

Read our full prediction below and get some of the best betting insights based on statistics.

Our Recommended Bet

Our analysts at Betting.co.uk have examined key metrics and modelled the most likely match outcomes based on both teams' recent performance data.

This includes historical trends, home and away statistics, and efficiency in front of goal.

Have a look at our recommended bet and key insights below.

Recommended Bet

1st Half Under 0.5 Goals

Why we predict under 0.5 Goals in the first half

Our tip is First Half – Under 0.5 Goals for the Portugal vs Wales fixture.

We foresee a cautious opening, with both teams feeling each other out and avoiding early risks. A goalless first half is a realistic outcome here.

Key Betting Insights

Portugal

• Scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches
• Under 10.5 corners landed in 4 of Portugal's last 5 matches
• Conceded in 3 of their last 5 matches

Wales

• Scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches
• Conceded in 5 of their last 5 matches
• Both teams scored in 5 out of Wales's last 5 matches

1st Half Under 0.5 Goals: 3/1

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Match Result

1x2 Odds Comparison

Bookmaker	1	X	2	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
	1/5	11/2	6/1	2/5	6/4
	2/9	11/2	12/1	8/15	7/5
	1/4	11/2	12/1	4/9	11/8

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Portugal Preview

Portugal is yet to feature in the UEFA Nations League, so this fixture marks their first outing in the competition.

Looking at Portugal's performance across all competitions this year, the statistics are as follows:

• Matches played: 15

• Wins: 9

• Draws: 4

• Losses: 2

• Goals Scored: 34 (Avg. 2.27)

• Goals Conceded: 12 (Avg. 0.8)

Team Statistics/Latest Results

Portugal

Goals Scored: 34

Goals Conceded: 12

Average Goals Scored: 2.27

Average Goals Conceded: 0.8

Wins: 9

Goal Difference: 22

Date	Game	Result
06/07	Portugal 0 - 1 Spain	L
02/07	Portugal 2 - 1 Croatia	W
27/06	Colombia 0 - 0 Portugal	D
23/06	Portugal 5 - 0 Uzbekistan	W
17/06	Portugal 1 - 1 Congo DR	D

Portugal to win the match: 1/5

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Wales Preview

On the other hand, Wales is yet to play a match in the UEFA Nations League, making this their first appearance in the competition.

Across all competitions this season, the team boasts the following performance:

• Matches played: 12

• Wins: 5

• Draws: 4

• Losses: 3

• Goals Scored: 25 (Avg. 2.08)

• Goals Conceded: 16 (Avg. 1.33)

Team Statistics/Latest Results

Wales

Goals Scored: 25

Goals Conceded: 16

Average Goals Scored: 2.08

Average Goals Conceded: 1.33

Wins: 5

Goal Difference: 9

Date	Game	Result
06/06	Romania 2 - 1 Wales	L
02/06	Wales 1 - 1 Ghana	D
31/03	Wales 1 - 1 Northern Ireland	D
26/03	Wales 1 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina	D
18/11	Wales 7 - 1 North Macedonia	W

Wales to win the match: 12/1

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Statistical Insights for Portugal vs Wales

With at least one of the two sides yet to record a match in this competition, a like-for-like statistical comparison is not yet available for this fixture.

Recent form across all competitions still offers a useful reference point:

Key metrics

Team Form

Portugal

International - UEFA Nations League

Form	Last 5 Games	PPG
Overall	L W D W D	1.6
Home	L W W D W	2
Away	D W D L W	1.6

Wales

International - UEFA Nations League

Form	Last 5 Games	PPG
Overall	L D D D W	1.2
Home	D D D W L	1.2
Away	L W L W L	1.2

Favourite

Home Win

1/5

83.33%

Draw

11/2

14.93%

Away Win

6/1

14.2%

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Key Metrics

Here's a breakdown of the core match metrics that often define betting value: goals scored, goals conceded, corners, and cards.

Analysing these stats offers a sharper view of team tendencies and helps identify markets with consistent trends.

Key metrics

Goals Scored

Portugal

8

last 5 matches

Wales

11

last 5 matches

Performance Gap

Wales scored +38% more goals than Portugal in the last 5 matches.

Portugal and Wales goals scored count, last 5 matches

▲

Spain

0

Croatia

2

Colombia

0

Uzbekistan

5

Congo DR

1

1

Romania

1

Ghana

1

Northern Ireland

1

Bosnia and Herzegovina

7

North Macedonia

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Key metrics

Goals Conceded

Portugal

3

last 5 matches

Wales

6

last 5 matches

Performance Gap

Wales conceded +100% more goals than Portugal in the last 5 matches.

Portugal and Wales goals conceded count, last 5 matches

▲

Spain

1

Croatia

1

Colombia

0

Uzbekistan

0

Congo DR

1

2

Romania

1

Ghana

1

Northern Ireland

1

Bosnia and Herzegovina

1

North Macedonia

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