EFL Championship

Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 15:00

Derby County

Team Performance 1 out of 10

Stoke City

Team Performance 4 out of 10

Derby County vs Stoke City Prediction & Stats | EFL Championship | 17/10

The encounter between Derby County and Stoke City is set to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday, 17/10.

This EFL Championship fixture offers an intriguing clash of form and tactics, with both sides eager to make a statement at this stage of the season.

Read our full prediction below and get some of the best betting insights based on statistics.

Our Recommended Bet

Our analysts at Betting.co.uk have examined key metrics and modelled the most likely match outcomes based on both teams' recent performance data.

This includes historical trends, home and away statistics, and efficiency in front of goal.

Have a look at our recommended bet and key insights below.

Recommended Bet

1st Half Under 0.5 Goals

Why we predict under 0.5 Goals in the first half

Our tip is First Half – Under 0.5 Goals for the Derby County vs Stoke City fixture.

We foresee a cautious opening, with both teams feeling each other out and avoiding early risks. A goalless first half is a realistic outcome here.

Key Betting Insights

Derby County

Conceded in 5 of their last 5 matches
4 matches against Stoke City ended in a draw
Over 9.5 corners occurred in 4 of Derby County's last 5 matches

Stoke City

Scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches
Conceded in 5 of their last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 5 out of Stoke City's last 5 matches

1st Half Under 0.5 Goals: 2/1

Stake £10.00 → Potential Return £30.00

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Match Result

1x2 Odds Comparison

1	X	2	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
6/4	12/5	7/4	10/11	5/6
6/4	11/5	13/8	5/6	5/6
8/5	12/5	8/5	10/11	10/11
7/4	12/5	6/4	10/11	4/5

Exclusive Bonus

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Derby County Preview

Derby County has completed 9 fixtures in the EFL Championship, securing 1 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses — an average of 0.67 points per game. In the EFL Championship, the team has scored 8 goals (0.89 per game) and conceded 15 (1.67 per game).

Across all competitions this season, Derby County has played 59 matches, scoring 79 goals (1.34 per match) and conceding 82 (1.39 per match).

Team Statistics/Latest Results

Derby County

Goals Scored: 80

Goals Conceded: 86

Average Goals Scored: 1.33

Average Goals Conceded: 1.43

Wins: 21

Goal Difference: -6

Date	Game	Result
14/10	Queens Park Rangers 4 - 1 Derby County	L
10/10	Derby County 1 - 1 Wrexham	D
19/09	Burnley 1 - 1 Derby County	D
12/09	Derby County 1 - 2 Birmingham City	L
09/09	Derby County 0 - 1 West Bromwich	L

Derby County to win the match: 6/4

Stake £10.00 → Potential Return £25.00

Stoke City Preview

Across 9 EFL Championship matches, Stoke City has posted 5 victories, 1 stalemates, and 3 defeats, averaging 1.78 points per fixture. In those games they scored 15 (1.67 per match) and conceded 13 (1.44 per match).

During the whole 2026/27 campaign, Stoke City has earned 22 wins from 61 matches across all competitions, scoring 71 goals (1.16 per match) and conceding 75 (1.23 per match).

Team Statistics/Latest Results

Stoke City

Goals Scored: 73

Goals Conceded: 78

Average Goals Scored: 1.18

Average Goals Conceded: 1.26

Wins: 22

Goal Difference: -5

Date	Game	Result
13/10	Stoke City 2 - 3 Middlesbrough	L
10/10	Bolton Wanderers 1 - 2 Stoke City	W
19/09	Stoke City 2 - 1 Sheffield United	W
12/09	Watford 1 - 2 Stoke City	W
08/09	Cardiff City 1 - 1 Stoke City	D

Stoke City to win the match: 7/4

Stake £10.00 → Potential Return £27.50

Statistical Insights for Derby County vs Stoke City

Here's a statistical breakdown comparing each team's key metrics to the average.

From goal output and both teams to score rates to the results of their last 5 matches, these numbers offer a data-backed view to help identify betting value in the Derby County vs Stoke City fixture.

Key metrics

Team Form

Derby County

England - EFL Championship

Form	Last 5 Games	PPG
Overall	L D D L L	0.4
Home	D L L L D	0.4
Away	L D L W L	0.8

Stoke City

England - EFL Championship

Form	Last 5 Games	PPG
Overall	L W W W D	2
Home	L W W W D	2
Away	W W D L L	1.4

Favourite

Home Win

7/4

37.17%

Draw

12/5

29.41%

Away Win

7/4

37.04%

Key Metrics

Here's a breakdown of the core match metrics that often define betting value: goals scored, goals conceded, corners and cards.

Analysing these stats offers a sharper view of team tendencies and helps identify markets with consistent trends.

Key metrics

Goals Scored

Derby County

last 5 matches

Stoke City

last 5 matches

Performance Gap

Stoke City scored +125% more goals than Derby County in the last 5 matches.

Derby County and Stoke City goals scored count, last 5 matches

Queens Park Rangers

Wrexham

Burnley

Birmingham City

West Bromwich

Middlesbrough

Bolton Wanderers

Sheffield United

Watford

Cardiff City

Key metrics

Goals Conceded

Derby County

last 5 matches

Stoke City

last 5 matches

Performance Gap

Derby County conceded +29% more goals than Stoke City in the last 5 matches.

Derby County and Stoke City goals conceded count, last 5 matches

Queens Park Rangers

Wrexham

Burnley

Birmingham City

West Bromwich

Middlesbrough

Bolton Wanderers

Sheffield United

Watford

Cardiff City

Key metrics

Corners

Derby County

last 5 matches

Stoke City

last 5 matches

Performance Gap

Derby County received +7% more corners than Stoke City in the last 5 matches.

Derby County and Stoke City corners count, last 5 matches

Queens Park Rangers

Wrexham

Burnley

Birmingham City

West Bromwich

Middlesbrough

Bolton Wanderers

Sheffield United

Watford

Cardiff City

Key metrics

Cards

Derby County

last 5 matches

Stoke City

last 5 matches

Performance Gap

Stoke City received +11% more cards than Derby County in the last 5 matches.

Derby County and Stoke City cards count, last 5 matches

Queens Park Rangers

Wrexham

Burnley

Birmingham City

West Bromwich

Middlesbrough

Bolton Wanderers

Sheffield United

Watford

Cardiff City

Published on 14 October 2026, at 01:00 Last updated on 15 October 2026, at 05:20

Dave Kuzio Content Manager

Dave is an established football tipster and NCTJ and NCE qualified journalist. He has over 23 years experience writing for sports websites including Teletext Sport, and providing betting tips for some of the biggest football betting sites. For his sins, he is a Barnsley FC supporter and gets to as many games as possible with his two sons.