Newcastle United vs Aston Villa Prediction & Stats | Premier League | 17/10
The encounter between Newcastle United and Aston Villa is set to kick off at 17:30 on Saturday, 17/10.
This Premier League fixture offers an intriguing clash of form and tactics, with both sides eager to make a statement at this stage of the season.
Read our full prediction below and get some of the best betting insights based on statistics.
Our Recommended Bet
Our analysts at Betting.co.uk have examined key metrics and modelled the most likely match outcomes based on both teams' recent performance data.
This includes historical trends, home and away statistics, and efficiency in front of goal.
Have a look at our recommended bet and key insights below.
Recommended Bet
Over 3.5 Goals
Why we predict over 3.5 Goals
Our betting pick is Over 3.5 Goals for the Newcastle United vs Aston Villa contest.
This game promises end-to-end action, with both teams expected to push forward and create plenty of opportunities. A high-scoring affair featuring at least four goals looks realistic.
Key Betting Insights
Newcastle United
10 matches against Aston Villa ended in a draw
Scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches
Scored at least 1 goal in 5 consecutive matches
Aston Villa
Scored 12 goals in their last 5 matches
10 matches against Newcastle ended in a draw
Conceded in 5 of their last 5 matches
Over 3.5 Goals: 6/4
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Newcastle United Preview
Newcastle United has completed 6 fixtures in the Premier League, securing 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses — an average of 1.33 points per game. In the Premier League, the team has scored 10 goals (1.67 per game) and conceded 13 (2.17 per game).
Across all competitions this season, Newcastle United has played 65 matches, scoring 111 goals (1.71 per match) and conceding 98 (1.51 per match).
Team Statistics/Latest Results
Newcastle United
Goals Scored:112
Goals Conceded:102
Average Goals Scored:1.7
Average Goals Conceded:1.55
Wins:28
Goal Difference:10
Date
Game
Result
12/10
Coventry City
4 - 1
Newcastle United
L
19/09
Newcastle United
2 - 1
Hull City
W
14/09
Leeds
4 - 1
Newcastle United
L
08/09
Millwall
0 - 1
Newcastle United
W
05/09
Newcastle United
2 - 2
Bournemouth
D
Newcastle United to win the match: 5/4
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Aston Villa Preview
Across 6 Premier League matches, Aston Villa has posted 1 victories, 2 stalemates, and 3 defeats, averaging 0.83 points per fixture. In those games they scored 6 (1 per match) and conceded 11 (1.83 per match).
During the whole 2026/27 campaign, Aston Villa has earned 36 wins from 65 matches across all competitions, scoring 104 goals (1.6 per match) and conceding 78 (1.2 per match).
Team Statistics/Latest Results
Aston Villa
Goals Scored:110
Goals Conceded:78
Average Goals Scored:1.67
Average Goals Conceded:1.18
Wins:37
Goal Difference:32
Date
Game
Result
14/10
Aston Villa
6 - 0
Fenerbahçe
W
10/10
Aston Villa
2 - 2
Brentford
D
19/09
Tottenham
2 - 3
Aston Villa
W
16/09
Coventry City
1 - 3
Aston Villa
W
12/09
Aston Villa
1 - 2
Nottingham Forest
L
Aston Villa to win the match: 2/1
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Statistical Insights for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
Here's a statistical breakdown comparing each team's key metrics to the average.
From goal output and both teams to score rates to the results of their last 5 matches, these numbers offer a data-backed view to help identify betting value in the Newcastle United vs Aston Villa fixture.
Key metrics
Team Form
Newcastle United
England - Premier League
Form
Last 5 Games
PPG
Overall
L
W
L
W
D
1.4
Home
W
D
W
D
W
2.2
Away
L
L
W
W
L
1.2
Aston Villa
England - Premier League
Form
Last 5 Games
PPG
Overall
W
D
W
W
L
2
Home
W
D
L
L
W
1.4
Away
W
W
W
D
L
2
Favourite
Home Win
5/4
44.44%
Draw
13/5
27.78%
Away Win
15/8
35.09%
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Key Metrics
Here's a breakdown of the core match metrics that often define betting value: goals scored, goals conceded, corners and cards.
Analysing these stats offers a sharper view of team tendencies and helps identify markets with consistent trends.
Key metrics
Goals Scored
Newcastle United
7
last 5 matches
Aston Villa
15
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Aston Villa scored +114% more goals than Newcastle United in the last 5 matches.
Newcastle United and Aston Villa goals scored count, last 5 matches
Coventry City
1
Hull City
2
Leeds
1
Millwall
1
Bournemouth
2
6
Fenerbahçe
2
Brentford
3
Tottenham
3
Coventry City
1
Nottingham Forest
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Key metrics
Goals Conceded
Newcastle United
11
last 5 matches
Aston Villa
7
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Newcastle United conceded +57% more goals than Aston Villa in the last 5 matches.
Newcastle United and Aston Villa goals conceded count, last 5 matches
Coventry City
4
Hull City
1
Leeds
4
Millwall
0
Bournemouth
2
0
Fenerbahçe
2
Brentford
2
Tottenham
1
Coventry City
2
Nottingham Forest
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Key metrics
Corners
Newcastle United
34
last 5 matches
Aston Villa
26
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Newcastle United received +31% more corners than Aston Villa in the last 5 matches.
Newcastle United and Aston Villa corners count, last 5 matches
Coventry City
6
Hull City
4
Leeds
5
Millwall
15
Bournemouth
4
9
Fenerbahçe
2
Brentford
1
Tottenham
8
Coventry City
6
Nottingham Forest
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Key metrics
Cards
Newcastle United
7
last 5 matches
Aston Villa
9
last 5 matches
Performance Gap
Aston Villa received +29% more cards than Newcastle United in the last 5 matches.
Newcastle United and Aston Villa cards count, last 5 matches
Coventry City
1
Hull City
1
Leeds
2
Millwall
1
Bournemouth
2
0
Fenerbahçe
2
Brentford
2
Tottenham
3
Coventry City
2
Nottingham Forest
Dave Kuzio
Content Manager
Dave is an established football tipster and NCTJ and NCE qualified journalist. He has over 23 years experience writing for sports websites including Teletext Sport, and providing betting tips for some of the biggest football betting sites. For his sins, he is a Barnsley FC supporter and gets to as many games as possible with his two sons.
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